Russian activity in Adiivka ‘has slowed dramatically’ since town’s capture

The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has dramatically slowed since the Ukrainian town was captured, according to an update from the Institute for the Study of War, or ISW.

According to a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces, that the number of Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction significantly decreased in the past day, and Russian forces are currently regrouping and conducting clearing operations in the area.

Meanwhile, the UK Defence Ministry says it is likely that Russian forces lack the combat effectiveness to immediately exploit the capture of Avdiivka and will require a period of rest and refit.

The ISW concurs in its analysis, adding that Russian forces will likely have to conduct an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction.

Alternatively, they will have to transfer additional reinforcements from other sectors of the front to the area to prevent operations near Avdiivka from culminating and to continue attacks in this area.

Russian forces have reserves available for such reinforcement in other sectors, but there is no indication that the Russian command is moving those reserves toward Avdiivka yet.

Meanwhile Ukrainian forces have withdrawn to a new line of defence, previously prepared in advance and fortified at “several levels’, according to the officials.

Available imagery, which ISW will not present or describe in greater detail at this time to preserve Ukrainian operational security, does not support claims that Ukrainian forces are insufficiently prepared to defend positions west of Avdiivka.

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