Moody’s rises Turkey’s growth rate forecast


International credit ratings agency Moody’s on Thursday upgraded Turkey’s economic growth forecast owing to the country’s growth-friendly fiscal policy.

“Turkey’s recovery is stronger than previously expected, but aggressive stimulus and the U.S. sanctions threat pose risk,” Moody’s said.

The global rating agency revised upward its 2019 and 2020 growth estimates to 0.2% and 3%, respectively while holding its projection for 2021 at 3%.

Moody’s also expected the global growth to remain sluggish as large engines of economic activity slow-down toward a lower long-term trend.

“We expect the G-20 economies, which account for more than 80% of the global economy, to collectively grow at an annual rate of 2.6% in 2020, the same rate as in 2019,” it noted, adding that it will pick up slightly in 2021 to 2.8%.

It estimated the deceleration in the U.S. and China to continue next year.

“Real GDP growth in the U.S. will likely stabilize around its potential, just below 2%. For China, we project a steady deceleration as a result of long-term structural factors,” Moody’s said.

The agency expected the growth of the G-20 emerging market countries to increase 4.3% in 2019, collectively registering the weakest growth rate since 2009.

It added that the emerging economies will stabilize or even pick up pace next year and in 2021.

“Growth will accelerate only slightly in 2020, at a rate of 4.6%, followed by 4.8% in 2021,” it said.
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